COVID-19 Literature I

literature published thru 30 March 2020

Updated May 13, 2020

16 JUL 2015: Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks (PLOS)

11 JUL 2019: Enhancing Situational Awareness to Prevent Infectious Disease Outbreaks from Becoming Catastrophic (Global Catastrophic Biological Risks)

30 JAN 2020: Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study (Lancet)

31 JAN 2020: Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study (Lancet)

4 FEB 2020: Chest CT Findings in 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections from Wuhan, China: Key Points for the Radiologist (Radiology) 

6 FEB 2020: Coronavirus cases in Singapore: What we know so far (The Straight Times)

11 FEB 2020: Coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’ (Harvard Gazette) Q&A with Marc Lipsitch 

13 FEB 2020: Chest Imaging Appearance of COVID-19 Infection (Radiology)

16 FEB 2020: Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 

Q&A with Author, Dr. Bruce Aylward (notes: China defined mild as not requiring oxygen. He doesn’t believe data from China support hypothesis of large scale undetected cases. China tested 320,000 samples from flu surveillance and he claims they didn’t see that.) 

20 FEB 2020: Aerosol emission and superemission during human speech increase with voice loudness (Nature)
“Here we show that the rate of particle emission during normal human speech is positively correlated with the loudness (amplitude) of vocalization, ranging from approximately 1 to 50 particles per second (0.06 to 3 particles per cm3) for low to high amplitudes, regardless of the language spoken (English, Spanish, Mandarin, or Arabic). Furthermore, a small fraction of individuals behaves as “speech superemitters,” consistently releasing an order of magnitude more particles than their peers.” 

21 FEB 2020: Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19 (JAMA)

24 FEB 2020: Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study (Lancet)

24 FEB 2020: Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China (JAMA)

27 FEB 2020: What US Hospitals Should Do Now to Prepare for a COVID-19 Pandemic (Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)

28 FEB 2020: A Case Series of children with 2019 novel coronavirus infection: clinical and epidemiological features (Oxford Academic)

28 FEB 2020: Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic? (NEJM) Bill Gates

28 FEB 2020: Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China (NEJM)

2 MAR 2020: The Contribution of Pre-symptomatic Transmission to the COVID-19 Outbreak (PrePrint)

5 MAR 2020: First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States (NEJM) 

5 MAR 2020: Preventing spread of SARS coronavirus-2 in humans (EurekaAlert Press Release)
“Our results show that SARS-CoV-2 requires the protease TMPRSS2, which is present in the human body, to enter cells …This protease is a potential target for therapeutic intervention.”

6 MAR 2020: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period (medRxiv preprint)
We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave.” 

7 MAR 2020: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: status report  (preprint)

8 MAR 2020: Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster (medRxiv preprint)
SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool.” 

9 MAR 2020: How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? (Lancet)

11 MAR 2020: Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Types of Clinical Specimens (JAMA)

13 MAR 2020: Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather? (Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. Lipsitch) 

13 MAR 2020: COVID-19 and Italy: what next? (Lancet)
Notes: 9-11% of detected infections admitted to ICU; 20% of HCWs have become infected

13 MAR 2020: Coronavirus: some recovered patients may have reduced lung function and are left gasping for air while walking briskly, Hong Kong doctors find (South China Morning Post)
“Some patients might have a drop of about 20 to 30 per cent in lung function, says medical director of Infectious Disease Centre at Princess Margaret Hospital” 

16 MAR 2020: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand  (Ferguson – Imperial College)
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…” (Taleb et al.)

16 MAR 2020: Epidemiological Characteristics of 2143 Pediatric Patients With 2019 Coronavirus Disease in China (Pediatrics pre-print)

17 MAR 2020: Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 (NEJM)
“Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible”

17 MAR 2020: Human Kidney is a Target for Novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection (medRxiv preprint)

18 MAR 2020: A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans (medRxiv preprint)
Updated 19 APR preprint.
Thread by Florian Krammer explaining the paper: 
Krammer Lab:
Update: FDA Authorizes Apr 15 Press Release

18 MAR 2020: Experimental Treatment with Favipiravir for COVID-19: An Open-Label Control Study (Engineering)
“FPV showed significantly better treatment effects on COVID-19 in terms of disease progression and viral clearance; if causal, these results should be important information for establishing standard treatment guidelines to combat the SARS-CoV-2 infection.”


18 MAR 2020: SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children (NEJM)

18 MAR 2020: Facing Covid-19 in Italy — Ethics, Logistics, and Therapeutics on the Epidemic’s Front Line (NEJM)

18 MAR 2020: Coronavirus disease-19: The First 7,755 Cases in the Republic of Korea (medRxiv preprint)

19 MAR 2020: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China (Nature Medicine)

20 MAR 2020: COVID-19 Illness in Native and Immunosuppressed States: A Clinical-Therapeutic Staging Proposal (Journal of Heart & Lung Transplantation)
“The early reports in heart transplantation suggest that symptom expression during the phase of establishment of infection are similar to non-immunosuppressed individuals; however, in limited series the second wave determined by the host-inflammatory response appears to be milder, possibly due to the concomitant use of immuno-modulatory drugs.”

21 MAR 2020: Respiratory disease and virus shedding in rhesus macaques inoculated with SARS-CoV-2 (bioRxiv preprint)

23 MAR 2020: Hypothesis: angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers may increase the risk of severe COVID-19 (Journal of Travel Medicine)

24 MAR 2020: Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions (Emerging Infectious Diseases)

24 MAR 2020: Epidemiological, clinical and virological characteristics of 74 cases of coronavirus-infected disease 2019 (COVID-19) with gastrointestinal symptoms (Gut)

25 MAR 2020: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK – seventh update (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control)

26 MAR 2020: Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (Eurosurveillance)

26 MAR 2020: Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression (Imperial College)

26 MAR 2020: Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Returning Travelers from Wuhan, China (NEJM)

26 MAR 2020: Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (medRxiv preprint)

27 MAR 2020: Clinical and immunologic features in severe and moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Journal of Clinical Investigation)
“Common clinical manifestations included fever, cough and fatigue. Compared to moderate cases, severe cases more frequently had dyspnea, lymphopenia, and hypoalbuminemia, with higher levels of alanine aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, ferritin and D-dimer as well as markedly higher levels of IL-2R, IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-α.”

27 MAR 2020: Treatment of 5 Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 With Convalescent Plasma (JAMA)

27 MAR 2020: Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Residents of a Long-Term Care Skilled Nursing Facility — King County, Washington (Early Release CDC)

27 MAR 2020: Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts (preprint)

27 MAR 2020: Cardiovascular Implications of Fatal Outcomes of Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (JAMA Cardiology)

27 MAR 2020: COVID-19: Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism (chemRxiv preprint)

27 MAR 2020: Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions (medRxiv preprint)

27 MAR 2020: Responses to Coronavirus Task Force Messaging
By Marc Lipsitch:
By Tom Inglesby:

28 MAR 2020: Indirect Virus Transmission in Cluster of COVID-19 Cases, Wenzhou, China, 2020 (Early Release CDC)

28 MAR 2020: This is a cautionary tale of how anti-Spike antibody may make COVID disease worse. (A thread by Prof. Akiko Iwasaki)

29 MAR 2020: National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening (American Enterprise Institute)

30 MAR 2020: News Feature: Avoiding pitfalls in the pursuit of a COVID-19 vaccine (PNAS)

30 MAR 2020: Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modelling study in Hubei, China and northern Italy (medRxiv preprint)
“Overall mortality among all symptomatic and asymptomatic infections was estimated to be 3.0% (95% credible interval: 2.6-3.4%) in Hubei province and 3.3% (2.0-4.7%) in northern Italy. Mortality increased with age; we estimate that among 80+ year olds, 39.0% (95%CrI: 31.1-48.9%) in Hubei province and 89.0% (95%CrI: 56.2-99.6%) in northern Italy dies or will die.” 

30 MAR 2020: What we learned from the first known community-acquired coronavirus case in the U.S. (UC Davis Health)

30 MAR 2020: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis (Lancet)
“Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53)”

31 MAR 2020: Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020 (CDC)

31 MAR 2020: Cigarette smoke triggers the expansion of a subpopulation of respiratory epithelial cells that express the SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2 (bioRxiv preprint)

31 MAR 2020: COVID-19–associated Acute Hemorrhagic Necrotizing Encephalopathy: CT and MRI Features (Radiology)